Martingale grid on gold: how stop-out is calculated, order by order

In short: In a martingale grid on gold, doubling lets a small bounce bring the basket to zero but pulls stop-out much closer; check the distance in the calculator first.

A martingale grid on gold opens a bigger order each time price moves another step against the basket. Doubling puts break-even less than one step from the newest order, so a bounce of about one step brings the whole basket back to zero. The catch: on $1,000 with the Midas default settings, stop-out comes about $65.6 below the first order.

Everything below is arithmetic of settings, not a forecast. A basket is the set of open orders in one direction. You can repeat every figure in the free grid calculator with your own balance.

The example uses the calculator defaults, which are the Midas settings: cent account, start lot 0.01, multiplier ×2, 11 orders, step $1.95, leverage 1:2000, stop-out at a 40% margin level, balance $1,000, and a first order at an assumed gold price of $4,170. A cent account shows money in cents, so $1,000 reads as 100,000 USC in the terminal; this article counts in dollars. Midas is an Expert Advisor for MetaTrader 5 that trades gold with a grid like this; the arithmetic holds for any doubling grid with the same settings.

A different gold price moves these figures by cents: at $5,000 the stop-out distance is $65.4 instead of $65.6. The cent account article uses other inputs (gold at $4,448.47, leverage 1:100), so its numbers differ from these.

What is a martingale grid on gold, and how does it work?

A martingale grid on gold opens a bigger order each time price moves another step against the first order and manages all open orders as one basket. In trading, martingale is a lot rule: the size grows after each losing step, doubling being the common case.

The name comes from a betting system in which the stake doubles after every loss (Wikipedia, Martingale (betting system)). A grid applies the same rule to orders. Price moves $1.95 against the first order, so the grid opens a second one twice the size. Another $1.95 and the third is twice the second. With the defaults this repeats until 11 orders are open: 0.01 lot, 0.02, 0.04, and so on up to 10.24, which makes 20.47 lots in total. (How a grid differs from plain averaging and from martingale proper is in grid vs martingale vs averaging.)

Assuming the usual 100 ounces per lot and a cent account (confirm both in your symbol specification), one lot is worth $1 for each $1 that gold moves. The full basket then carries $20.47 per dollar of price. The first order alone carries one cent per dollar. With all 11 orders open, a dollar against you costs 2,047 times as much.

Floating loss is the whole basket's loss at the moment that order opens. Rebound is how far price must climb from that level for the basket to be at zero.

Read the last column twice. It never reaches the size of one step ($1.95). Each new order is as large as all the earlier ones together plus one start lot (10.24 = 10.23 + 0.01). Break-even is the weighted average of the entry prices, like the balance point of a plank with weights on it. Put a weight as heavy as all the others combined at one end, and the balance point sits next to it. For N orders and a step S, the rebound at the last order is S × (2^N − N − 1) ÷ (2^N − 1), always a little under one step.

Now read the last row. The 11th order is 10.24 of 20.47 lots, half of everything. The loss so far is $39.70, small next to a $1,000 balance, but each further dollar against the basket costs $20.47. The doubling has no brake of its own: the grid gets heavier until price turns or the broker closes the account.

What is stop-out, and when does the broker close a martingale grid?

Stop-out is the margin level at which the broker starts closing positions by force. In the example, at a 40% level it begins when equity is down to about $17, so about $983 of the $1,000 is already gone.

The broker watches the margin level: equity divided by margin, times 100 (MetaTrader 5 Help). Equity is, roughly, the balance plus the floating profit or loss of the open orders. When the margin level falls to the stop-out level, the server starts closing positions, at whatever price is available. The level is set either in percent or in money, depending on the server (MQL5 documentation). The example uses 40%. Your broker sets its own, so read it from your account; margin call vs stop-out shows how.

Leverage decides how much margin is held. One lot of gold needs 100 oz × $4,170 ÷ 2,000 = 208.5 USC, or $2.085. The 20.47-lot basket holds about $42.7. Forty percent of that is about $17. So the broker steps in when equity is down to roughly $17, which means about $983 of the $1,000 is already gone. At this leverage stop-out is not an early warning. It is close to the last dollar.

The room left after the last order, in dollars of gold price:

room = (balance − floating loss at the last order − stop-out % × margin)
       ÷ (dollars per $1 of price × all lots)

     = (1,000 − 39.70 − 17.07) ÷ 20.47 ≈ 46.1

How far can gold fall on $1,000 before stop-out?

With the Midas default settings, gold can fall about $65.6 below the first order, roughly 1.6% of its price, before a $1,000 cent account is stopped out. The arithmetic gives these points:

• The 11th order opens $19.50 below the first one, with a floating loss of $39.70.
• After that, gold can fall another $46.1 before the margin level reaches 40%.
• Stop-out therefore comes $65.6 below the first order, about 1.6% of the gold price. For a buy basket started at $4,170, that is about $4,104, with about $983 of the $1,000 already lost.
• A sell basket mirrors this: price rises instead of falling.

Whether gold travels that far one way before it turns is a question about the market. Arithmetic only shows where the line is.

How far must price come back for the basket to break even?

Right after the 11th order opens, gold must climb only $1.94, about one step, for the whole basket to return to zero. From the stop-out line the climb would be $48.0, but the account would be gone by then. The two answers differ a lot.

Right after the 11th order opens, price only has to climb $1.94 for the whole basket to be back at zero (last row of the table), about one step.

At the bottom, if the account were still alive $65.6 below the first order, the break-even of the full basket sits $17.56 below the first order. Gold would have to climb $48.0 from the bottom, about 73% of the way back to the first order.

The second number is a thought experiment. At stop-out the account does not wait. The broker closes the positions, the loss becomes real, and a later rebound in gold changes nothing for that account. "It will come back" and "the account will still be there when it does" are two separate claims.

Does a bigger balance give a martingale grid more room?

Yes. For a martingale grid on gold, room grows linearly with the balance, because the basket is fixed by the settings and the balance is the only thing that absorbs it. Every extra $100 buys $100 ÷ 20.47, about $4.9, of room at the full basket. Same settings, different balances:

Balance and lot work as a ratio. $2,000 behind a 0.02 start lot leaves exactly the same $46.1 of room as $1,000 behind 0.01, because every number in the basket doubles. $1,000 behind 0.02 gives $21.7, the same as $500 behind 0.01. The useful question is never "how big is my balance" but "how big is it per 0.01 of start lot".

Every extra order roughly doubles the bill. With the same step and a 40% stop-out, the balance that leaves $20 of room after the last order is $116 for 9 orders (5.11 lots), $233 for 10 (10.23 lots) and $466 for 11 (20.47 lots). This is arithmetic of the settings, not a suggested deposit. How step, multiplier and order count each change these numbers is the subject of grid step, multiplier and order count.

More room is not enough room: a bigger balance moves the stop-out further away but does not remove it, and the $4,000 row still ends at a number.

What can go wrong: can one strong move take the whole deposit?

Yes. A martingale grid adds orders instead of closing at a loss, so nothing in it caps the loss. If price moves one way past the stop-out distance, the broker closes the basket and the deposit is gone, apart from what is left at that point (about $17 in the example). No balance, lot or step rules this out. The betting system it is named after has the same weakness when the bankroll is limited.

Watch it on live accounts: the video 4 live gold grid strategies (6 min, in English) shows a $1,000 live account with a 0.04 starting lot, only $250 per 0.01, stopped out on August 19, and a $2,000 live account with about $1,000 per 0.01 that made +$1,385 in a month.

The calculator is also kinder than the market. It assumes every order opens exactly on its level. By default it ignores spread (there is a field for it), and it leaves out:

• swap and commission;
• slippage in fast markets;
• price gaps, for example at the weekend open;
• margin steps and lower leverage at your broker;
• a stop-out level higher than 40%;
• the small change in margin as the price falls (cents of room here).

Any of these can bring the real stop-out closer than the calculated one. Whether a loss can go below zero depends on the broker; see can a forex account go negative.

Midas has an optional one-order lock. While it is on, floating loss on the locked part of the basket stops growing, but the unlocked part and the spread paid on reductions still count, and a stop-out remains possible. The general idea is in locking a position in forex; the product wording is on Risk, plainly. Midas is a martingale-style grid for MT5 on hedging cent accounts, and with too small a deposit a stop-out is possible.

What should you check before running any martingale grid?

1. How many lots does the full basket hold, and how many dollars per $1 of price is that?
2. Where is stop-out for your balance, in dollars and in percent of the gold price?
3. What are your broker's real stop-out level and leverage? The values here (40%, 1:2000) may not be yours. Open a broker account explains the account type Midas needs; check that the broker accepts clients from your country.
4. How much is your balance per 0.01 of start lot, and could you afford to lose all of it?

For your own numbers, run the grid calculator with your balance. The margin calculator shows margin and lot value, and the cent account calculator shows what 0.01 lot means on a cent account. Each Midas setting is explained in Panel settings explained. More about the product is on the home page; questions go through the Telegram bot @MidasGridBot.

This is arithmetic of the settings, not a forecast. Trading with leverage carries risk: if the deposit is too small, a stop-out is possible. Size your deposit with a safety margin. Nothing here is individual investment advice.

Midas · figures calculated and sources retrieved on 8 October 2026.

Related: Martingale 2.0: why a doubling grid exits after a pullback of about $2 shows how the lot rule of a grid EA shortens the way back to break-even.

FAQ

What is the martingale strategy in trading?

In trading, martingale is a lot rule: the position size grows after each losing step, doubling being the common case, so that a small bounce can bring the basket back to break-even. A martingale grid applies the rule to orders on a price ladder. The catch is that each further dollar against the basket costs far more, and nothing in the rule caps the loss.

Does martingale work in forex?

The lot rule alone creates no edge. In the example, doubling puts break-even less than one $1.95 step from the newest order, but each further dollar against the basket costs $20.47 instead of one cent for the first order. That is a risk shape, not an edge: the betting system the rule is named after has the same weakness when the bankroll is limited.

Is martingale grid trading risky?

Yes. A martingale grid raises its size as price moves against it, so a one-way move that does not turn back can take the whole deposit. That is how the strategy is built, not a malfunction. A grid can close a deep basket on a small bounce only because the exposure behind it keeps growing. Risk only money you can afford to lose.

How do I calculate where a martingale grid gets stopped out?

Add up the lots of every order, find the floating loss at the last order and the margin held. Subtract the loss and the stop-out share of the margin from the balance, then divide by the dollars per $1 of price. The result is the room after the last order. The grid calculator does this order by order for your own settings.

How far can gold fall before a grid on a $1,000 account is stopped out?

With a 0.01 start lot, 11 orders, a $1.95 step, leverage 1:2000 and a 40% stop-out level, $1,000 reaches stop-out $65.6 below the first order, about 1.6% of the gold price. A $2,000 balance reaches it $114.4 below. No amount rules out losing the deposit, so these are distances on a calculator, not a target balance.

Does 1:2000 leverage give a martingale grid more room?

Somewhat, because the broker holds less margin. In the example, the room after the 11th order is $46.1 at 1:2000 and $30.2 at 1:100, while the equity left when the broker starts closing is about $17 at 1:2000 and $341 at 1:100. The loss per dollar of price is the same at any leverage, so the loss itself does not shrink.