MidasHow often gold moves $10, $20, $50: odds per hour, 4 hours and day
Reviewed
Over 10,418 full hours from 2 Jan 2025 to 26 Oct 2026, gold got at least $10 away from the hour's opening price in 47.4% of hours, at least $20 in 16.0% and at least $50 in 2.1% (one direction). Over a 4-hour block the shares were 85.3%, 52.7% and 11.0%; over a trading day 95.0% for $20, 55.4% for $50 and 18.4% for $100. These are shares of past windows, not forecasts.
Odds of a move from the open (reach)
Reach is how far price got from the window's opening price in one direction: the larger of (high minus open) and (open minus low). It is the distance a stop or the next grid order placed that far from the open would feel. The table gives the share of windows whose reach was at least the distance in the first column. Windows: 10,418 hours, 2,283 four-hour blocks, 462 days.
| Distance | 1 hour | 4 hours | Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $5 | 80.2% | 98.2% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $10 | 47.4% | 85.3% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $15 | 26.6% | 67.5% | 98.7% |
| ≥ $20 | 16.0% | 52.7% | 95.0% |
| ≥ $30 | 6.7% | 30.6% | 81.6% |
| ≥ $40 | 3.4% | 17.7% | 67.3% |
| ≥ $50 | 2.1% | 11.0% | 55.4% |
| ≥ $75 | 0.7% | 3.8% | 31.4% |
| ≥ $100 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 18.4% |
| ≥ $150 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 6.7% |
Odds of a high-minus-low range
Range is high minus low inside the window. It is always at least as large as reach, so these shares are higher.
| Distance | 1 hour | 4 hours | Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $5 | 90.7% | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $10 | 62.9% | 94.2% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $15 | 40.0% | 81.9% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $20 | 24.7% | 68.8% | 98.9% |
| ≥ $30 | 10.4% | 45.2% | 92.9% |
| ≥ $40 | 5.1% | 27.4% | 83.1% |
| ≥ $50 | 3.1% | 17.5% | 71.4% |
| ≥ $75 | 1.1% | 6.1% | 46.8% |
| ≥ $100 | 0.5% | 2.7% | 29.0% |
| ≥ $150 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 10.6% |
The last 3 months
Since 27 Jul 2026 (1,386 hours, 60 days) the picture is mixed against the whole period: a $10 reach in an hour happened in 57.5% of hours against 47.4%, a $20 reach in 15.9% against 16.0%, a $50 reach in 1.2% against 2.1%. Over a whole day the last three months reached $50 more often: 75.0% of days against 55.4%.
| Distance | 1 hour: reach | 1 hour: range | Day: reach | Day: range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $5 | 94.2% | 99.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $10 | 57.5% | 79.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $15 | 30.5% | 49.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $20 | 15.9% | 26.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $30 | 5.3% | 8.1% | 93.3% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $40 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 86.7% | 100.0% |
| ≥ $50 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 75.0% | 95.0% |
| ≥ $75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 41.7% | 66.7% |
| ≥ $100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 20.0% | 35.0% |
| ≥ $150 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% |
The busiest hours of the day (UTC)
The table gives the same shares for six UTC hours next to all hours. They are not equal: some hours are much busier than the average hour and some are not. The full 24-hour picture, in your time zone or broker server time, is on the hour profile page.
| Hour (UTC) | Hours | Reach ≥ $10 | Reach ≥ $20 | Reach ≥ $50 | Range ≥ $20 | Range ≥ $50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00–02:00 | 466 | 66.1% | 30.7% | 4.5% | 44.2% | 6.2% |
| 08:00–09:00 | 464 | 47.6% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 20.0% | 2.6% |
| 13:00–14:00 | 460 | 74.8% | 34.6% | 4.3% | 54.1% | 6.3% |
| 14:00–15:00 | 462 | 74.7% | 34.2% | 4.8% | 50.6% | 7.6% |
| 15:00–16:00 | 459 | 64.7% | 26.1% | 2.8% | 39.2% | 4.8% |
| 18:00–19:00 | 452 | 38.9% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 20.6% | 3.5% |
| All hours | 10,418 | 47.4% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 24.7% | 3.1% |
Typical size of an hour and of four hours
The same windows in dollars: the typical size rather than the share above a level.
| Window | Windows | Median | Mean | 75th percentile | 90th percentile | Largest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour, range | 10,418 | $12.59 | $16.50 | $19.85 | $30.61 | $397.29 |
| 1 hour, reach | 10,418 | $9.53 | $13.10 | $15.55 | $24.93 | $397.29 |
| 4 hours, range | 2,283 | $27.94 | $34.67 | $41.71 | $62.80 | $450.57 |
What this means for a grid and for a stop
The reach columns are what a stop or the next grid order feels. A level $20 from the open of the hour was touched in 16.0% of hours, a level $50 away in 2.1% (last three months: 15.9% and 1.2%). Over a day, the day's reach was at least $50 in 55.4% of days. A tighter stop or step is touched far more often than a wide one, and the table shows by how much.
To see what a particular grid does on these ranges, use the grid calculator (deposit, step and number of orders) and the Midas Grid emulator, which replays real ticks. This page is descriptive: past movement does not predict future movement, and it is not advice to trade.
How we measured
- Source. Dukascopy XAUUSD bid tick data, aggregated by us into hourly open, high, low and close. Prices are US dollars per ounce; all times are UTC. Bid only: no spread, commission or swap, and no trading results of any strategy.
- Period. 2 Jan 2025 to 26 Oct 2026: 462 trading days, 10,418 full hours and 2,283 four-hour blocks. “Last 3 months” means days from 27 Jul 2026. Numbers were generated on 29 Oct 2026.
- Day. A trading day is one Monday to Friday UTC day file; the day's open is its first tick. Monday's file also holds the Sunday-evening reopen. The weekend gap itself is not part of any day: see the weekend gap page.
- Which hours are kept. Only full hours of Monday to Friday: at least 30 quotes, the first quote within 5 minutes of the start of the hour, the last within 5 minutes of its end, and no silent stretch longer than 10 minutes. Hours that do not meet this (the daily break, the weekend, thin or interrupted hours) are dropped. A four-hour window is a UTC block (00–04, 04–08 and so on) and is kept only when all four of its hours are kept.
- Range and reach. Range is high minus low inside the window. Reach is the larger of (high minus open) and (open minus low): how far price got from where the window opened, in one direction. Reach is at least half of the range. The percentages of price use the window's opening price.
- The numbers file. All figures on this page come from one file, gold_moves.json; there are no other sources and no estimates.
Frequently asked questions
How often does gold move $10 in an hour?
Over 10,418 full hours from 2 Jan 2025 to 26 Oct 2026, price got at least $10 away from the hour's opening price (in one direction) in 47.4% of hours. Measured as high minus low, an hour was at least $10 wide in 62.9% of hours. In the last three months the shares were 57.5% and 79.9%.
How often does gold move $50 in a day?
From the day's opening price, price got at least $50 away in 55.4% of 462 trading days, and the day's high minus low was at least $50 in 71.4% of days. In the last three months these shares were 75.0% and 95.0% of 60 days.
What is the difference between reach and range?
Reach is how far price got from the window's opening price in one direction: the larger of (high minus open) and (open minus low). It is what a stop or the next grid order placed that far from the open would feel. Range is high minus low and is always at least as large as reach. Reach is at least half of the range.
Which hours of the day are the busiest?
The page lists six UTC hours (01:00, 08:00, 13:00, 14:00, 15:00, 18:00). Ranked by the share of hours where price got $20 away from the open, the top three were 13:00 UTC (34.6%), 14:00 UTC (34.2%), 01:00 UTC (30.7%), against 16.0% for all hours. The lowest of the six, 18:00 UTC, was below the all-hours level (12.6%). The full 24-hour picture is on the hour profile page.
Are the odds the same in the last three months as over the whole period?
Not exactly. For hours, a $10 reach happened in 57.5% of hours in the last three months against 47.4% overall, a $20 reach in 15.9% against 16.0% and a $50 reach in 1.2% against 2.1%. For days, a $50 reach happened in 75.0% of days against 55.4%. The shares depend on the period, and price also changed over these years.
Do these shares predict the next hour?
No. They are shares of past hours, days and blocks, not probabilities for the next one, and they depend on the period: the median 1-hour range was $12.59 and the 90th percentile $30.61 over the whole data. Past movement does not predict future movement.
These are the ranges a grid Expert Advisor works inside.Midas Grid is a grid EA for gold on MT5; its panel shows the room to stop-out for your account and settings.