MidasThe break-even of a grid basket is the lot-weighted average of its entry prices, moved by the spread and by every cost already paid divided by the basket's lots × the value of $1 per lot: commission of $7 per standard lot moves it $0.07, each percentage point of annual swap about $0.12 per night at gold $4,170 — so a full 11-order basket that needs a $1.94 pullback without costs needs about $2.43 with a $0.30 spread, commission and one night of swap.
Arithmetic of settings, not a forecast and not advice. Trading with leverage carries risk: if the deposit is too small, a stop-out is possible.
See also: 7 protections for a martingale grid bot on gold →
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What is the break-even of a basket?
A grid EA closes its orders together, as one basket. The basket's break-even is the price at which closing all its orders gives exactly zero after costs. Above it (for a buy basket) the basket is in profit; the pullback a grid needs is the distance from the bottom back up to that price.
Without costs the break-even is simply the average entry price weighted by lots. Costs push it further away: the buy basket has to climb a little more to pay for them.
The formula
For a buy basket (a sell basket is the mirror image: subtract instead of add):
Break-even = Σ(lotᵢ × priceᵢ) ÷ Σ lotᵢ + spread + (commission paid + swap paid) ÷ (Σ lotᵢ × V)
- lotᵢ, priceᵢ: lot and entry price of each order of the basket.
- spread: a buy basket is closed at the Bid, so it must rise by the spread above the average Ask.
- commission paid, swap paid: in money, for all lots of the basket (a swap credit counts with a minus sign).
- V: the value of a $1 move of gold for 1.00 lot in your account currency — $100 on a standard account (100 oz), $1 on a cent account as our calculators model it.
Because both commission and swap are charged per lot, the lots cancel out: each cost moves the break-even by its amount per 1.00 lot divided by V, whatever the size of the basket. A commission of $7 per standard lot is $7 ÷ $100 = $0.07 of gold price, for a 0.03-lot basket and for a 20-lot basket alike.
Worked example: the default grid
Cent account, first lot 0.01, multiplier ×2, step $1.95, 11 orders, gold at $4,170. The full basket holds 20.47 lots; the last order is $19.50 below the first one.
Without costs, from the averaging break-even calculator:
| Order | Total lots | Break-even below the first order | Pullback from this order to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.07 | $2.79 | $1.11 |
| 5 | 0.31 | $6.16 | $1.64 |
| 8 | 2.55 | $11.76 | $1.89 |
| 11 | 20.47 | $17.56 | $1.94 |
Now the costs, with placeholders you replace by your broker's values:
| Cost (placeholder) | Moves break-even by | In money for the full basket (20.47 lots) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread $0.30 | $0.30 | $6.14 |
| Commission $7 per standard lot round trip | $0.07 | $1.43 |
| Swap, 1 percentage point of annual interest, one night | $0.12 (4,170 × 1% ÷ 360) | $2.37 |
| The same swap on a triple-swap night | $0.35 | $7.11 |
| The same swap for a week held (1, 1, 3, 1, 1 = 7 nights) | $0.81 | $16.60 |
And the pullback the full basket needs from its last order:
| Situation | Pullback from the 11th order to break even |
|---|---|
| No costs | $1.94 |
| Spread $0.30 | $2.24 |
| Spread + commission | $2.31 |
| Spread + commission + one night of swap | $2.43 |
| Spread + commission + a week of swap | $3.12 |
The basket in this example is the one that matters for risk: it is the deepest one. A week of swap adds $0.81 — more than 40% of the $1.94 the basket needed without costs.
Why costs matter more for small baskets
The shift is the same in dollars of price for every basket, but small baskets need a smaller pullback, so the same cost is a bigger share of it. With a $0.30 spread and $0.07 commission:
| Basket | Pullback without costs | With spread + commission | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 orders | $1.11 | $1.48 | +33% |
| 11 orders | $1.94 | $2.31 | +19% |
Most baskets of a grid are small. If an EA closes them a fixed distance above break-even, a cost that looks tiny per order takes a noticeable share of each small profit.
How each cost behaves
- Spread. Paid on every order, at the spread of the moment it opens. Gold's spread widens at the daily rollover, at the Sunday open and around news, exactly when grids open orders fast. A backtest with a fixed small spread understates this (why a profitable backtest blows a real account).
- Commission. Fixed per lot, usually charged when the order opens or split between open and close. It moves the break-even by the same amount for every basket.
- Swap. Only for lots held past the broker's rollover; ×3 on the triple-swap day. It can be a charge or a credit and depends on direction. A basket that stays open for days pays it every night on all its lots, so deep, long baskets are hit hardest. How to read swap in MT5: XAUUSD spread and swap.
How to calculate it for your basket
- Open the averaging break-even calculator, enter your lot, multiplier, step and orders, and set your spread in the advanced fields: it shows the break-even and the pullback for every order.
- Read commission and swap in your broker's terms and the symbol Specification.
- Divide each cost per 1.00 lot by V ($100 on a standard account) and add the result to the pullback. For swap, multiply by the nights the basket stays open (×3 on the triple day).
- Check the multiplier too: a lower multiplier needs a bigger pullback before any cost (which martingale multiplier is safer).
FAQ
How do I calculate the break-even price of a martingale basket?
Multiply each order's lot by its entry price, add these up and divide by the total lots. Then add the spread and every cost paid (commission and swap) divided by total lots × the value of $1 per lot. For a sell basket subtract instead.
Does a bigger basket need more pullback because of commission?
No. Commission is charged per lot, so it moves the break-even by the same price distance for any basket: $7 per standard lot is always $0.07 of gold. In money a bigger basket pays more, but it also earns more per $1.
How much does swap move the break-even on gold?
With a swap set as annual interest, each percentage point moves it by price × 1% ÷ 360 per night: about $0.12 at gold $4,170, $0.35 on a triple-swap night and $0.81 for a week. With swap in money per lot, divide the swap per 1.00 lot by the value of $1 per lot.
Does the averaging break-even calculator include commission and swap?
It includes the spread. Commission and swap depend on your broker and how long the basket stays open, so add them by hand: cost per 1.00 lot ÷ value of $1 per lot, per night for swap.
Can swap ever lower the break-even?
Yes, when your broker credits a positive swap on the basket's direction. Then the credit is subtracted. On gold the long swap is often a charge, but it changes with interest rates and between brokers, so check the Specification.